[Waverley ARS] Sunspot Predictions - Low, possibly another year away

Sat Apr 28 04:13:21 UTC 2007

Tnx Eddie. Interesting.
As for sunspot min and max - looks like "yer pays yer money an' yer takes 
yer choice".
The bleak figures for April coincide with my own experience on 20m - worst 
conditions I recall in nearly 30 years....
Next max 2011 or 2012 !  OK for the young "F" members but at my stage not so 
welcome - unless I can get man antenna up in a nursing home....!
73         Colin         VK2LV

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Eddie Hanham" <eddiehan at bigpond.net.au>
To: "W.A.R.S. Members List" <members at cactii.net>
Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2007 10:31 AM
Subject: [Waverley ARS] Sunspot Predictions - Low, possibly another year 
away

> Dear Members,
>
> Paul Black sent me this excellent Sunspot Forecast Bulleten from the
> ARRL W1AW, one phrase may interest DXers:
>
> "It looks like the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 may not occur for
> another year, until March 2008, a year later than recently reported.
> The accuracy is expected to be plus or minus six months."
>
> See below, also interesting links to NASA re 3D images of sunspots.
>
> Very interesting article Paul, thank you.
>
> Eddie
> VK2BEH
>
> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018
> ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA
>
> ZCZC AP18
> QST de W1AW
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18  ARLP018
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  April 27, 2007
> To all radio amateurs
>
> SB PROP ARL ARLP018
> ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA
>
> In the past few days sunspots have reappeared after six days of
> nothing.  In April so far we've seen 18 days with 0 spots.  But
> currently a large sunspot, number 953 is rolling into view.  A solar
> wind stream is also expected to hit earth, causing geomagnetic upset
> on Saturday, April 28.  The Australian Space Forecast Centre
> predicts quiet to unsettled conditions on April 27, active to minor
> storm on Saturday, April 28, and active conditions on April 29.  The
> U.S. Air Force predicts planetary A index from April 27 through May
> 1 at 5, 25, 15, 10 and 8.  Similar predictions from Geophysical
> Institute Prague give us quiet conditions for April 27, active on
> April 28, unsettled to active April 29, unsettled April 30, quiet to
> unsettled on May 1, and back to quiet on May 2-3.
>
> Lots of news this week on the solar minimum and predicted solar
> maximum.  On April 25, a Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, consisting
> of members from NOAA, NASA and other agencies looked at all
> available predictions and attempted to reach a consensus.  It looks
> like the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 may not occur for another
> year, until March 2008, a year later than recently reported.  The
> accuracy is expected to be plus or minus six months.  The peak of
> cycle 24 is expected to occur in October 2011 if there is a large
> solar cycle, and August 2012 for a small cycle.  You can see their
> statement at,
> http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/Statement_01.html.
>
> Many people sent links to articles about this.  Frank Donovan, W3LPL
> of Glenwood, Maryland sent a couple of links, including one with a
> graphic representation of a range of predictions at,
> http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/ssn_predict.gif.  Also check
> http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/ for other info, including
> PowerPoint presentations.  If you don't have PowerPoint, you can
> find a free PowerPoint viewer to download for Mac or Windows by
> searching for the two words PowerPoint Viewer in Google, or any
> other search engine.
>
> An AP story is at,
> http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/313152_solar26.html, and on
> the web at,
> http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060818_sun_cycle.html link.
>
> We received a large volume of mail this week, and hope to get to
> more of it in the next bulletin.  Among reports was some unusual 6
> meter backscatter propagation observed by Bill Van Alstyne, W5WVO of
> Rio Rancho, New Mexico on April 21.
>
> I'll let Bill describe it: "Greetings from New Mexico, DM65. Just
> finished a very unusual opening off of a pre-season Es cloud in
> northern Mexico, approximately 2315-0100z. Many central Mexican
> stations in XE1/XE2 with 59++ sigs, but the real news was the
> amazing strength of the backscatter signals coming in from Arizona,
> New Mexico, Utah, Texas, and California, all peaking with the beam
> pointed due south. Was able to work a couple of new close-in grids
> in AZ, as well as many other grids I already had. Strongest
> backscatter signals were from Bob, W7UT, in southwest Utah; Bud,
> N7CW, in Prescott, AZ; and Tommy, W7RV, in Scottsdale, AZ. All were
> consistently 56/57 until the propagation began to weaken around
> 0030z."
>
> Bill continues, "This is by far the strongest backscatter I've ever
> heard on 6M. As a rule, Es clouds (due to their very thin, flat
> architecture) are very poor backscatter producers; the only previous
> backscatter I've ever worked off of 6M Es was extremely weak. This
> backscatter propagation was ragchew quality, and lasted virtually
> without QSB for over an hour."
>
> Also this week we saw some of the early 3-D images from the NASA
> STEREO satellites.  To view in 3-D, you need those paper glasses
> with a red filter covering the left eye, and cyan filter over the
> right eye.  You can see the images at,
> http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/stereo/news/stereo3D_press.html.
> They also have info on where to find the glasses.  I found mine for
> well under a dollar at Science, Art and More, a shop that sells
> products for science education in my neighborhood.
>
> I must admit I was a little disappointed, but only a little.  At the
> distance these solar images are taken, the depth effect of the sun
> shows it as very close to a perfect sphere, in my estimation.
> Perhaps I was hoping for detailed looks at the surface with
> exaggerated three-dimensional effects that would enhance the
> perception of depth and detail.  But I have no doubt that the images
> shown on that page are probably accurate, more so than what I had
> imagined.
>
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
>
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
> explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
>
> Sunspot numbers for April 19 through 25 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 14
> with a mean of 2. 10.7 cm flux was 68.3, 68.5 68.7, 68.9, 69.1,
> 73.2, and 76.5, with a mean of 70.5. Estimated planetary A indices
> were 6, 3, 2, 10, 18, 4 and 5 with a mean of 6.9. Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 2, 8, 10, 5 and 4, with a mean of
> 5.
> NNNN
> /EX
>
>

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